"Both forces come with a long legacy of abuse," he says. Mohamed Osman, a researcher on Sudan at Human Right Watch, says the world should have seen this coming. "To see it kind of fall apart now and the whole country kind of go up in flames, I think is, you know, is a real bad signal for the ability of the United States and its allies to help bring about these kinds of transitions, not only in Sudan but all across the region," says Hudson, now with the Center for Strategic and International Studies. miscalculated by putting too much trust in what the generals said about their commitment to restoring civilian control. official who has worked on Sudan, thinks the U.S. Some analysts say this conflict has been long in the making.Ĭameron Hudson, a former U.S. But given how far the leaders have gone in denouncing each other, it's believed they are unlikely to give up their struggle for power now. The latest, announced earlier this week, has seen a lull in fighting but not a complete halt.Ī number of countries have offered to mediate and get the two generals to the negotiating table. The many Sudanese who participated in the pro-democracy movement are devastated to see their hopes of a transition back to civilian rule imperiled, but members of the country's so-called resistance committees, which organized the 2019 and post-coup protests, say they're not giving up.ĭespite multiple calls for an end to hostilities, several cease-fires have failed. Many analysts believe that Sudan is headed for a prolonged period of conflict, given that neither general is likely to relinquish power easily. Russia also has other interests in the country, with Moscow planning to build a military base in Port Sudan on the Red Sea. The group denies any involvement in the conflict. The Russian mercenary group Wagner, which has links to the Kremlin, also has a presence in Sudan, mainly involving guarding Russian-run mines as well as gold smuggling. Beijing is Sudan's second-biggest trading partner and has considerable investments in the country. Egypt shares a long border and a significant source of water - the Nile.Ĭhina and Sudan have long had a relationship stemming from the North African state's export of oil. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have financial interests in Sudan. Institute of Peace.Īnd it's not only Washington that wants to see an end to the fighting. "Having a stable Sudan that looks to the United States as a partner, as a core partner, that's incredibly strategic," says Susan Stigant, who runs the Africa programs at the U.S. long considered Sudan a state sponsor of terrorism. Sudan is surrounded by a host of fragile states, either in conflict or emerging from it. Secretary General António Guterres warned on Tuesday the violence could spread to other countries in the region, saying: "It is lighting a fuse that could detonate across borders, causing immense suffering for years, and setting development back for decades." head of mission, Volker Perthes, said this week neither side seemed serious about negotiating. The African Union is also involved in negotiations. Secretary of State Antony Blinken says he has spoken to both generals directly. International diplomats are struggling to bring Sudan back from the brink. We're seeing cases where people are staying out in the open, under the trees." What's at stake in the region and beyond? The majority of those that are arriving are women and children. That people are essentially coming in exhausted, coming in scared. "The teams that we have at the border locations, in mainly South Sudan and Chad, tell us they're witnessing a very dire situation. These new arrivals are placing additional strain on these countries that already have public services and resources significantly overstretched," she says. "At least 20,000 Sudanese have arrived in Chad and nearly 4,000 South Sudanese refugees have returned to South Sudan. Tens of thousands are trying to flee to safety, mainly to neighboring Chad and South Sudan, says Faith Kasina, regional spokesperson for the U.N. Soaring food and fuel prices are exacerbating problems for ordinary Sudanese. People prepare to board a bus departing Khartoum on April 24, as battles rage in the city between the army and paramilitaries.
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